Sports bets can be very profitable if you know the strategies typically the “smart money” bettors employ to consistently make funds. One of the primary secrets that clever money bettors use is usually knowing when NOT to help bet.

Here’s a best illustration. My partner and i analyzed typically the Western Florida vs. Louisville activity, and concluded the fact that West California had the edge in the game. Yet , My spouse and i also realized that there have been a great deal of random and unstable factors, and recommended to my clients that they perform not guarantee on this particular game. Here is my analysis I released ahead of the game:

West Florida vs . Louisville

This video game provides all the symptoms of being one connected with the most effective games of the year, together with both teams coming into the adventure 7-0. It’s #3 rated West Virginia as opposed to. #5 ranked Louisville, the two with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s game was a classic, having West Virginia coming back again from appearing down large in the next quarter to winning within overtime, however,.

So what’s the overall game look like this year?

When this video game were as played on a new natural field, West California would likely probably be a 4-6 point favorite. Since often the game is Louisville, WVU is a 1-point under dog. Let’s see if this will make sense…

West Virginia will be on an unprecedented spin. That they haven’t lost since Oct. 1, 2005, going 14-0 since they dropped to Las vegas Tech. In the last two conditions they’re 13-5 ATS likewise. They’re also 7-2 OBTAIN THE in their last nine games overall, and 8-2 ATS in their very last 10 HIGHWAY games.

These are some very extraordinary stats that tilt the particular scales in favor connected with WVU to get tonight’s online. Plus, this additional benefit is that WVU is usually GETTING +1 point. This could not look like significantly, but in a close up match-up this way, that spare point might make the variation between some sort of push and even a loss.

But you may be wondering what about Louisville?

โอเพ่น365 are really almost as good as WVU’s -except when it comes to Louisville in the point spread. In their very own last 10 games, Louisville is just 4-6 ATS. That said, Louisville is even so 7-3 ATS into their previous 10 home games.

And even if you’re leaning toward WVU, here’s a intimidating stat… Louisville hasn’t dropped in your own home since 12 , 16, 2003! During this current run Louisville is hitting 49. 4 points every game at your home, while averaging only letting go of 15. 7 points every game with home. In case you did not do the figures, that means considering that their particular last home reduction they are yet to averaged beating their particular opponents by way of about thirty four points per game.

What’s more remarkable, the average line during these games has only already been 21 points. That means Louisville has beaten the particular divide, on average, simply by 13 items per video game at home due to the fact the year 2003.

Wow… how can a person not in favor of that?

Here’s exactly how…

Most of those stats had been developed during the june 2006 season. There is much surprise, 2006, Louisville has been nearer to excellent than great. They’ve had recent games that has they also have only scored 36, 23, 24 points. These activities weren’t against Ohio Stycken. or Michigan. That they have been against Cincinnati, Syracuse, in addition to Kansas St.

The end result is that this is still some sort of close activity to contact. Yet what I look with regard to is West Virginia’s safeguard to carry the day. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, together with Kansas St. can most hold Louisville under thirty points, then there’s virtually no factor to think WVU can’t have one to typically the low to core 20’s. My honest professional recommendation can be to lay off this game and not necessarily guess at all. There are usually better games this quick with more simple rewards.

The final score of this game was Louisville forty four, West Virginia 34. Lousiville won because West Virginia had 6 fumbles and even allowed Lousiville to come back the punt for a new TD. The bottom line was the fact that West Virginia’s fringe had not been so big that they can may still win after doing so many mistakes. Simply by not betting on this particular match, people critical with regards to wagering saved money they can offer better apply on future games.